Plant breeding could be set to take centre stage as the world follows a different tune in the face of tariffs, suggests Tom Allen-Stevens.
Sir Keir Starmer has decided to “dance with the devil”. Rather than stand up to US President Donald Trump over tariffs, a battle many other world leaders appear to be bracing themselves for, he has chosen to secure a trade deal.
What’s more it’s one he’s hoping will keep the door open to a better deal for UK trade with the EU. It’s admirably British for him to do this, and let’s set aside for a moment whether he can actually pull off a deal that’s beneficial for the UK.
This is probably a defining moment in history. It’s no exaggeration that if our PM makes this his “Witching Hour” and understands how to master the power that POTUS wields, there’s much to be gained. But if he becomes “The Devil’s Advocate”, entangled in the seductive, populist world of the White House, we’ll all lose. And where does agriculture sit in this negotiation? Not since we joined the EU have British farmers had so little influence over the State.
Every single incoming UK government since the 1970s has tried to reduce the support offered to farmers, and offshore food production. But they’ve failed because of the protection offered by the Common Agricultural Policy.
Sir Keir is the first new-administration PM since Brexit, and has already shown he is happy for decades of the Treasury’s pent-up bureaucratic resentment to be unleashed on the perceived protection the farming sector has enjoyed.
British farmers would have been completely buried in the first hint of a trade deal with the US if it hadn’t been for the Putin factor: one unhinged autocrat has dramatically shown what can happen when he is left in charge of the world’s breadbasket and pulls the levers of global food exports.
It’s reset government thinking on how the nation feeds itself. “Food security is national security” is now the mantra and the only reason UK farmers get a look-in on any trade deals.
This is the first time since World War II that government ministers have faced the prospect of both re-arming Britain and making the nation self-sufficient in essentials. It’s scarily serious stuff and Whitehall simply doesn’t have the staff, the skills, the resource to begin to understand how to make an informed decision. So whether or not agriculture is a welcome part of any trade deal, the UK cannot afford to sacrifice it altogether.
Against this backdrop, the British PM meekly engages with the president of the US, the second largest wheat exporter in the world (after Russia), trying to play to the same step. The real question for Sir Keir is whether he can offer enough moves to keep Mr Trump at the top of the Fox newsfeeds and ameliorate the MAGA faithful’s addiction to populist drama.
Which brings us to what agriculture may have in its portfolio that can maintain the staggeringly short attention span of Mr Trump and his craving for ratings as trade restrictions between our two nations ease. It was almost inevitable that our beef market would be opened up and exposed to US imports, although hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken appear to remain off the menu on UK plates, for the moment at least.
The easing of restrictions on US ethanol will compete against domestic wheat destined for the biofuel market, although arguably this move doesn’t threaten food security. But then there’s new genetic technologies.
Over 20 years ago, when US interests attempted to exert their corporate authority over the EU and railroad acceptance of genetically modified crops, the move spectacularly backfired. The EU shut out the technology, and remains closed to it. It’s a sore point for the US who would desperately like to see its dominance in GM tech rolled out across the continent.
Moreover, the EU is currently closed to newer precision breeding techniques, such as gene-editing. These differ from GM in that they have been shown to be genetic advances that could happen naturally. But the UK, or more accurately England, isn’t closed to this tech.
The Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act, passed in 2023, will allow crops with targeted genetic changes to be grown from this autumn on commercial English farms.
The first of these precision-bred crops are due to be planted and brought to harvest next year in closely monitored field trials as part of the Defra-funded PROBITY project. English farmers will begin to understand the traits that could transform agriculture and the benefits they hold for the UK food industry before any other farmer in the EU gets the opportunity.
What’s more, there’s an awesome array of talent in UK research institutes – our scientists are global leaders in precision breeding. There are jaw-dropping innovations in glasshouses looking to sink their roots into commercial English soils and demonstrate as yet unseen capabilities to the curious farmer. They’re all diamonds in the rough, but in the right hands, we have the potential to rewrite the agronomy rulebook and deliver true food security, not just for the English farms where they’re grown, but for the world.
That’s the sparkling sequin, the dazzling move that could attract Mr Trump. Chances are, there’s a similar array of novel traits emerging from US glasshouses, making their way into the soils of the Mid West farming belt.
The opportunity to bring these to English farms and shape a whole new dimension to this rebirth in plant breeding could be transformational for the farmers, scientists and others involved on both sides of the Atlantic.
They would be at the forefront of developing lines suited to the wider EU market, with greater acceptance, an understanding of local consumer needs, and proactively addressing their concerns.
This would be a farmer-led platform that shapes new genetic technologies ahead of enabling legislation, expected soon, that would then allow them to be further developed on commercial farms across the continent.
Other innovations will languish at national borders, unable to navigate the trade barriers still scarring the marketing landscape. But a reciprocal agreement on precision-bred crops could be a truly enabling tariff-free trade of talent for the UK.
While the opportunity to expand markets for nascent technologies without having their potential quashed by tariff-embittered former trading partners won’t have gone unnoticed by the US commercial interests bending Mr Trump’s ear.
So the challenge for Sir Keir as he continues his steps on the trade deal dancefloor is to strike out with mesmerising moves that emphasise the technical prowess the UK has in genetics, engage with charisma and a style that draws in these commercial interests, and set a rhythm that puts the two nations’ plant-breeding industry in harmony. Can he pull it off?
The other outcome is that he becomes hopelessly entangled and outpaced by the moves of one dominant partner. For the sake of global food security, he must succeed.
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Issue #2

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